Turkey vs the EU #6

Can the EU calm Greece-Turkey Tensions before its too late?

Armand Nareg Yerjanian

Sep 04, 2020

Happy Friday (🧐). Welcome to the 6th edition of the Pomegranate Seed!

Remember the romantic comedy, “My Big Fat Greek Wedding”?

Then you can’t forget Yiayia (Grandma)!

While you were busy with…fill in the blank...the never friendly relationship between Greece and Turkey has gotten ugly.

It is hard to be optimistic takes here.

The dispute between Turkey and Greece reflects deep-rooted ethnic rivalries. Who imagined that the west’s next war would be within the Nato alliance?

Welcome to the new international disorder.

I kindly ask you to share this week’s article. The global picture is being re-written by the great rivalry between the US and China. But the world is also witnessing the return of regional disorder. In the absence of an American referee, old wounds are being reopened, old enmities revived.

Share Pomegranate Seed

Operation Atilla: The End of Enosis

The Cyprus conflict (1967-1974) stems from the Greek Cypriot majority's call for unification, enosis, with Greece. An idea that emerged during the Greek War of Independence in the 1820s and developed under British colonial rule.

Enosis for the Turkish Cypriots meant becoming a much smaller minority within the Greek nation.

The frustrations over how enosis should proceed between Athens and Cypriot leader Makarios III led to a Greek Cypriot coup in 1974.

The Turkish response was swift. Turkey, citing the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee, intervened militarily to protect Turkish Cypriots. The 1960 Treaty of Guarantee was signed by Great Britain, Greece, Turkey, Greek Cypriots, and the Turkish Cypriots.

Article 1 states that the Treaty's purpose is to "ensure the recognition and maintenance of the independence, territorial integrity, and security of Cyprus by preventing direct or indirect partition or annexation by the guarantor states. ... It (the Republic of Cyprus) undertakes not to participate, in whole or in part, in any political union with any State whatsoever. It accordingly declares prohibited any activity likely to promote, directly or indirectly, either union with any other State or partition of the Island."
Under Article IV of the Treaty, Great Britain, Greece, and Turkey all had the right to intervene on the island should the sovereignty of the island was threatened.

Turkish troops took control of 38% of the island and established a beachhead in the north. A ceasefire was signed two days later between Turkey and Greece. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) worked to avoid an intra-alliance confrontation. Peace talks were convened in Geneva, but those talks did not please Turkish concerns.

Since 1974, the two Cypriot communities have been in forced separation between a buffer zone named the “Green Mile”. Almost all Greek Cypriots fled south while almost all Turkish Cypriots fled north. As a consequence, two-thirds of the people of Cyprus live outside their birthplaces or places of residence since 1974. In 1983, the Turkish Cypriot community unilaterally declared independence, forming the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, forcing the UN Security Council to ratify Resolution 550.

Fast Forward to 2020…

and the new discovery of undersea gas reserves in the Mediterranean sparked a new “gold rush”.

The dash for gas has also drawn in regional players to the mix: Israel, Egypt, Lebanon, Libya.

These new undersea gas reserves will not be peacefully carved-up.

Not long ago, Europe would have looked to Washington to send a few ships into the Aegean to cool off the butting heads of Ankara & Athens, but those days are over.

Erdogan has been emboldened by the absence of the U.S. What better way for Turkey to test its influence than with a brand new reserve of natural gas? The only problem? Greece.

The dispute is over ownership of offshore gas deposits and the delimitation of 200-mile exclusive economic zones (EEZs).

In early August, Turkey sent exploration vessels and warships in contested waters off the Greek island of Kastellorizo, which lies 2km from the Turkish coast.

Despite its 1,600 kilometers Mediterranean coastline, Turkey is the only Eastern Mediterranean state without internationally recognized rights to offshore resources in the area because nearby Greek islands and Cyprus have secured the right to generate EEZs under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

Differences over offshore gas have also been exacerbated by the Libya conflict, with Greece and Turkey supporting opposing sides. Turkey concluded a delimitation agreement with Libya in 2019, which sweeps aside Cypriot and Greek claims. Greece responded in August by inking a partial maritime delimitation agreement with Egypt which is incompatible with Turkish claims.

In January, Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority set up the Eastern Mediterranean Energy Forum, which Ankara viewed as threatening Turkish interests. The tension led to Greek and Turkish vessels colliding at sea in mid-August, with a high possibility of further clashes.

In response, France deployed naval vessels and fighter aircraft to the eastern Mediterranean.

Deadlock is imminent, war is looming.

Mixed Messages

The EU has called for the sovereign rights of its members Cyprus and Greece to be respected. But the different approaches taken by France and Germany could undermine the EU’s mediation effort.

Ms. Merkel wants the union to act with its trademark soft power to reduce tensions. She also wishes to preserve cooperation with Turkey on migration and is sensitive to feelings among the Turkish diaspora in Germany.

Mr. Macron considers that a display of ‘hard power’ will deter Erdogan from military threats. His accusation that President Erdogan is pursuing an

“expansionist policy, mixing nationalism and Islamism, which is incompatible with European interests and is a factor for destabilization”

was not meant to draw Turkey into mediation.

In addition, France, Greece, Cyprus, and Italy have launched a joint aeronautical exercise south of Cyprus, while Greece has undertaken air force exercises with the United Arab Emirates in Crete.

Mr. Macron’s conclusion that the EU needs to take a hard stance on Turkey since the US has left the region is absolutely right. Many of Turkey’s claims defy international law — a position underscored by Ankara’s refusal to join the UN’s convention on the law of the sea.

Europe however is far from being united.

France’s support for Greece happens to match its own drive to sustain its influence in the region. Macron’s arrival in Beirut after the August 4th explosion highlights a direct approach to seize influence in the Mediterranean.

Ms. Merkel fears Turkish retaliation against the EU in the form of reopening its borders to allow the flight of Syrian refugees into Europe would be a worst-case scenario.

None of these differences are insurmountable.

Before Trump, Turkey and Greece would have been subdued by American intervention. What has changed is that Europeans must now hammer out an agreement among themselves.

As long as Erdogan can play one member state off against another, the EU has no leverage.

Real Solutions

Tension in the Mediterranean will deescalate only if the EU policy remains tough.

The EU must continue to show naval force while extending economic incentives to bring Erdogan to ease.

The “good cop”/ “bad cop” routine being played by Germany and France is a promising strategy to avoid confrontation.

Merkel’s preference for mediation could lead to bilateral negotiations between Turkey and Greece and compromises on their conflicting claims.

A revival of tourism, if the Eastern Mediterranean is no longer perceived as a conflict zone, would contribute to the recoveries of Cyprus, Greece, and Turkey from the coronavirus-induced downturn.

Conflict-resolution would bring reputational gains to Turkey & Greece, where the business climate suffers from weaknesses. This would raise both country’s ratings and improve conditions for European investment and banking in Turkey.

Erdogan’s march towards authoritarianism has ensured that the prospect of Turkey joining the EU is as close to zero as it has ever been. That should not preclude better trade and investment relations between neighbors and a longer-term understanding of refugees.

The starting point, though, must be an EU ready to think and act, for itself.

Armand has worked as an investment analyst and technology project manager for the last 5 years. Prior to Grüv & Illuria Security , Armand spent 2 years with NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, where he was responsible for budgeting, marketing, and overseeing business deliverables for NASA’s “Juno” spacecraft. Fun fact: Juno now orbits Jupiter. Most recently, Armand spent his time working as a Derivatives Analyst at the TCW Group - an asset management firm with over $200 Billion under management. He was in charge of trading documentation, onboarding assets in excess of $1B via Future and OTC Clearing, and servicing over 200 clients while negotiating over 50 successful trading documents with broker-dealers.

Blog/News Roll

I’ll be sharing a list of websites/people sharing extremely important information regarding Armenia. Expect this list to grow with every single publication.