Armenian communities attacked around the world. Who is behind it? #2
Armenian communities attacked around the world. Who is behind it? #2
International intelligence communities must be on high alert.
Happy Monday (🤯) and welcome to the 2nd edition of the Pomegranate Seed!
A bit of reflection and a reminder:
Nationalism is not activism. If you’re looking to reinforce your own predetermined views of hate, aggression, and spew negativity against Azerbaijan or other “oppressors”, you’ve come to the wrong place.
We only do optimistic takes here.
I did not expect to be publishing articles for the Pomegranate Seed Newsletter on solely Armenian issues, but my emotions have got the best of me. Angered by the attacks against Armenian communities around the world, it’s time to be even more active in bringing an end to hate. Fighting hate with hate is a recipe for disaster and I urge you all not to be an ingredient of disaster. But remember, we only do optimistic takes here.
A huge thank you to everyone who has signed up. Over 40 people have joined since last Monday! I kindly ask you to share this week’s article. If Azerbaijan is indeed sponsoring hate crimes around the world against Armenians, the international intelligence communities must be on high alert.
On July 25th, Moscow police reported that they detained over 30 people on charges of involvement in fights and disturbances. In St. Petersburg, police detained dozens in a bid to prevent another big fight between Azerbaijanis and Armenians.
The Attack on Armenian communities has been so violent, documented, and out of nowhere, the Armenian community had an official meeting with Russia’s Federal Security Service (former KGB) to quell concerns and investigate further.
Back in Armenia, the Ministry of Affairs has called out Azerbejiani attacks in the Diaspora.
However, the attacks haven’t stopped.
Armenian Protestors attacked in
London, Netherlands. Washington DC, Los AngelesAn Armenian School in San Francisco vandalized with hateful graffiti.
If all the recent mob styled mini “Pogroms” against Armenians were organized by the Azerbaijani special services like Arif Mammadov claims (Former Azerbaijani Ambassador to Belgium who has political asylum for fear of death) then the intelligence agencies in the USA, Germany, and England must be on HIGH ALERT.
Russia’s Federal Security Service (former KGB ) has taken action, as I mentioned earlier, realizing foreign actors threatening their national security is not good.
Azerbaijan is trying something new, for the first time engaging in 21st century asymmetric warfare.
Operating in small, covert groups, and having no recognized sovereign territory or backed by a nation-state, asymmetrical combatants can engage in violent, lethal activities with far less risk of being totally overwhelmed by reprisals that a nation-state might face. In addition, those killed or arrested in action can be portrayed as martyrs and used to recruit more converts to the cause.
Sound Familiar?
Armenian axed to death by Azeri officer who was celebrated when arriving back to Baku.
Erdogan Security Forces Launch ‘Brutal Attack’ on Washington Protesters, Officials Say
Although all armed political conflicts have much in common, their strategic objectives can differ widely. The primary strategic objective of asymmetrical warfare is psychological, not military. Azerbaijan, the strongest state of the South Caucasus, at the same time is one of the most vulnerable countries in the region. If Azerbaijan would start a war with Armenia in order to restore its control overArtsakh, the ambitious energy policy aiming to turn Azerbaijan into an important oil and gas transportation link between East and West would end without a success. It is important to emphasize that Baku not only lost the physical control after 1994 but also was defeated by Yerevan in a diplomatic effort to broker some sort of peace. This has led to everlasting insecurity and failure that consistently fueled centuries worth of pan Turkish/Azeri systemic hatred against Armenians.
A vital strategic objective in asymmetrical warfare is to win the hearts and minds of potential sympathizers and supporters, thereby gaining financial and logistic support, safe haven, and the ability to recruit new combatants. No asymmetrical organization or movement can long survive much less achieve its political objectives without a significant outside support system. All the articles/events leading up to today are tell-tell signs that Azerbaijan is persistently fueling hate through social media campaigns, cyberespionage, lobbying, and using its acclaimed oil Frat Star status, to misinform the international community.
Now that these attacks have landed in America, are the US intelligence agencies going to act? What does punishment look like if Azeri agents were to get arrested for state-sponsored operations on US territory?
To answer both these questions quickly.
Yes, they will act, they already are.
Punishment is bad. Not only for the individuals but the repercussion for Azerbaijan would be severe.
Turkish/Azeri agents have an ugly past operating in America. In 2011, they took part in a fight at the United Nations that sent at least one security officer to the hospital. In 2010, the police and members of Mr. Erdogan’s security team clashed with demonstrators outside the Brookings Institution in Washington. Most notably and most recently when Erdogan’s security detail attacked US citizens in Washington DC in 2017. Another video shows Erdogan watching the attack play out from a Mercedes-Benz sedan parked a few yards away. His role in the clash, if any, is unclear (thank you asymmetric warfare).
The House unanimously passed a resolution condemning the attack and calling for charges against the security forces. Federal prosecutors brought charges on 18 Turkish agents, but in March 2018, dropped the cases due to lack of evidence.
The Turkish Government was quick to claim that the identities of those individuals charged were unknown, using the veil of asymmetric warfare to achieve political goals. In the US one has to prove a case beyond a reasonable doubt, thus Turkish lawyers were easily able to persuade prosecutors to drop the charges. At the same time, Trump was making an extra effort to cozy up to Erdogan (Trump really likes to sell guns.)
Even though the US struck a blind eye to Turkey in 2018, it has been extremely aggressive targeting state actors and agents from China, Iran, and Russia. The legal quagmire of state sovereign immunity vs the use of asymmetrical warfare is blurring every line of international law signed to protect countries against outright war, and many nations once thought to be inferior, are becoming unusually important. No government in the world would have an easy time publicly prosecuting a captured foreign agent in broad daylight. Except if you’re Marina Butina.
The reason Turkish bodyguards we’re unidentifiable was simply that they weren’t registered as agents of a foreign power under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). Not registering foreign agents is a crime in of itself, but since Turkey, and now Azerbaijan, are hiring paid, “unmarked assailants” as bodyguards, anti-protest leaders, and mobs, they hold all the cards on being able to properly spin a media narrative that disassociates the state with the actors involved. When it comes to state-sponsored cyber hacking, good luck even arresting or prosecuting a foreign actor.
Azerbaijan continues to use its political, financial, and nationalistic might to indulge in asymmetric warfare against Armenians. Their goal is to provoke fights, retaliations, and violence towards Azeris in order to prove “Armenian Aggression”. Aliyev loves to use his own people as shields. It is not a coincidence that the attacks on the Armenian community have been organized and planned, in the large part by what appears to be the Azerbaijani government. If more evidence is gathered by intelligence communities in the world, I would 100% bet you’ll see Azerbejiani foreign agents operating a massive covert operation to spread hate, destabilize countries where the Armenian community holds heavy popularity, and create a reason to have the international community stop supporting Armenians.
If these types of attacks continue around the world, and Azerbaijan is able to spin a story of victimization, it could very easily be a reason for them to start a full-on war in Armenia.
The Pan Turkish/Azeri state is desperate to reincarnate the “glory days” of the Ottoman Empire. Hagia Sophia's conversion to a mosque was the first symbolic war cry to this dream.
Artsakh is absolutely an international catalyst that could trigger the next big military conflict. Intelligence communities around the world, stay vigilant!
Blog/News Roll
I’ll be sharing a list of websites/people sharing extremely important information regarding Armenia. Expect this list to grow with every single publication.
DataArmenia
Armenian Military
Economist Intelligence Unit
EvnReport
Emil Sanamyan
Dr. Artyom Tonoyan
__